Exit polls have predicted a big win for the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in the elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, Mumbai’s powerful civic body. According to multiple exit polls released after voting on Thursday, the ruling alliance is set to comfortably cross the majority mark, while the reunited Thackeray brothers appear to be falling short of expectations.
An aggregate of six exit polls suggests that the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance could win around 132 seats in the 227-member civic body, well above the majority mark of 114. The Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, along with its allies, is projected to secure about 63 seats, while the Congress is expected to win around 20 seats.
Exit polls also indicate a clear voting pattern across communities. While Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray are expected to attract a large share of Maratha and Muslim votes, North Indian and South Indian voters are projected to have backed the BJP in large numbers. Young voters and women are also said to have largely favoured the BJP.
Axis My India and JVC exit polls have both predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance. JVC has projected 138 seats for the alliance and 59 seats for the Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray combine, with Congress likely to get 23 seats. Axis My India has estimated that the ruling alliance could win between 131 and 151 seats, while the opposition alliance may be limited to 58 to 68 seats.
The Sakal Poll has predicted 119 seats for the BJP and Shiv Sena, and around 75 seats for the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. It has projected that the Congress may not cross 20 seats. Janmat exit poll has estimated 138 seats for the ruling alliance and 62 for the opposition, while DV Research and Jubilant Data Studio have also forecast a clear edge for the BJP and Shiv Sena.
According to Axis My India, the BJP is expected to receive nearly 68 percent of the North Indian vote in Mumbai. Among Maratha voters, the Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray and MNS combine is projected to get around 49 percent, while the BJP may receive about 30 percent. Exit polls suggest the Congress will retain a strong base among minority voters, with around 41 percent of Muslim votes projected to go to the party, followed by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena at 28 percent.
A senior political analyst quoted in television discussions said, “If these numbers hold, it will mark a major shift in Mumbai politics and show that the BJP has successfully filled the space created after the split in the Shiv Sena.”
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, considered the richest civic body in Asia, was last elected in 2017 when the undivided Shiv Sena retained control. Eight years later, and after a major split in the party, the exit polls suggest a significant change in power equations.
Voting was also held in 28 other civic bodies across Maharashtra after long delays. The counting of votes will take place on Friday. While exit polls point towards a clear advantage for the BJP and Shiv Sena, political observers caution that exit polls have been wrong in the past and the final outcome will only be known after counting.
