Exit poll results released after the conclusion of voting in five states have suggested a politically mixed outcome, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appearing strong in Assam and Puducherry, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is locked in a close fight in West Bengal. In southern India, the DMK-led alliance is projected to retain Tamil Nadu, and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is shown ahead in Kerala.
Vote counting will take place on May 4, 2026.
However, as seen in previous elections, exit polls are not always accurate and have often failed to correctly predict final results, especially in politically complex states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
West Bengal: Close Contest Between BJP and TMC
West Bengal, which has emerged as the most high-stakes battleground, is showing sharply divided projections. Several pollsters have predicted a narrow BJP lead or even a majority in the 294-seat assembly, while others continue to show the Trinamool Congress ahead.
Some agencies have placed BJP between 146–175 seats, suggesting a possible majority, while others have given TMC between 120–187 seats, indicating it could retain power comfortably depending on final trends.
The state saw high voter turnout and politically tense polling, making the outcome highly unpredictable. Analysts say even small shifts in vote share could change the final result.
Assam: BJP Set for Strong Third Term
Exit polls have been more consistent in Assam, where the BJP-led alliance is widely projected to win a clear majority.
Most surveys predict BJP and its allies winning between 85–100 seats in the 126-member assembly, while the Congress-led opposition is expected to remain far behind.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is projected to return for a third consecutive term, with exit polls suggesting strong support for the ruling alliance despite a polarised campaign.
Kerala: UDF Ahead After 10 Years
In Kerala, nearly all exit polls point towards a return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) after a decade in opposition.
The UDF is projected to win around 70–90 seats in the 140-member assembly, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is expected to fall behind with 45–65 seats.
The BJP remains a marginal player in the state, though some surveys suggest a slight increase in vote share.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Likely to Retain Power, Vijay’s Party Surprises
Tamil Nadu exit polls largely indicate a continuation of DMK rule under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. Most projections give the DMK-led alliance a comfortable majority.
However, one survey has created political buzz by projecting a strong debut for actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), even suggesting it could emerge as a major force in the state.
The AIADMK-led opposition is expected to remain competitive but not strong enough to form the government.
Puducherry: NDA Ahead
In Puducherry, all exit polls have projected a win for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggesting a return to power or continuation of its rule in the Union Territory.
Exit Polls vs Reality: A Word of Caution
Experts and the Election Commission have repeatedly warned that exit polls are not final results. Past elections, including West Bengal 2021 and the 2024 general elections, showed major differences between predictions and actual outcomes.
Exit polls often struggle in states with complex caste dynamics, regional parties, and high voter volatility.
High-Stakes Verdict Awaited on May 4
The 2026 assembly elections are being seen as a crucial test for national and regional parties alike. For the BJP, it is an opportunity to expand into eastern and southern India. For opposition parties, it is a chance to halt the NDA’s expansion.
With counting day approaching, all eyes are now on whether exit poll trends hold or are overturned once votes are officially counted.
