Exit polls released on Tuesday evening following the conclusion of the second phase of voting in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections suggest a clear victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JD(U), while the opposition Mahagathbandhan trails far behind.
Several agencies, including Matrize, People’s Pulse, JVC, and DVC Research, project the NDA to win between 130 and 167 seats in the 243-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 122. The Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is expected to secure between 70 and 103 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party appears to have made little impact, with predictions ranging from zero to five seats.
The exit polls reflect the voter sentiment from the two-phase elections, with the first phase on November 6 recording a historic turnout of 64.66% across 121 constituencies. The second phase, held on November 11 across 122 seats, saw a slightly higher turnout of 68.67%, deciding the fate of 1,302 candidates, including several ministers in the Nitish Kumar government.
The NDA’s seat-sharing in this election has the JD(U) and BJP contesting 101 seats each, LJP (RV) on 29 seats, and HAM(S) and RLM on six seats each. On the opposition side, the RJD is contesting 143 seats, Congress 61, CPI nine, CPI(M) four, CPI(M-L)L 20, and VIP 15.
Exit polls, which gauge voter preferences immediately after voting, are not final but offer an indication of trends before the official results are announced on November 14. Analysts say the high turnout and voter behavior in both phases suggest strong support for the NDA, giving Nitish Kumar’s alliance a significant advantage over the Mahagathbandhan.
According to the surveys, NDA is projected to win: 133-159 seats (People Pulse), 147-167 (Matrize), 137-152 (DVC Research), and 145-160 (Dainik Bhaskar). Mahagathbandhan’s predicted tally ranges from 70-103 seats, while Jan Suraaj is expected to win at most 5 seats.
