Voting for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand state assembly elections concluded on Wednesday, with exit polls indicating a tight race between the ruling alliances and their respective opposition coalitions.
Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, the ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), is expected to secure a clear majority in the 288-member assembly. According to the Matrize Exit Poll, the Mahayuti coalition is projected to win 150-170 seats with a vote share of 48%.
The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP (Ajit Pawar) alliance is predicted to emerge as the largest party, with the BJP alone securing 89-101 seats and a vote share of 26%. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), consisting of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), is expected to secure 39-47 seats with a vote share of 15%. Other parties and independents may win 22-27 seats.
The exit poll also breaks down the expected results by region:
- Western Maharashtra: Mahayuti is likely to win 30-35 seats, while MVA is projected to win 29-34 seats.
- Mumbai: Mahayuti is expected to win 20-26 seats out of 36, with MVA securing 9-15 seats.
- Vidarbha: Mahayuti is expected to win 33-39 seats, while MVA could get 19-24 seats.
- Marathwada: The MVA is projected to win 20-26 seats, with Mahayuti securing 19-24 seats.
- North Maharashtra: MVA is likely to outperform Mahayuti, with projections showing 14-21 seats for MVA and 13-19 seats for Mahayuti.
The exit poll has a 3% margin of error, based on a sample size of 179,489.
Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, the contest is between the JMM-led INDIA alliance and the BJP-led NDA. The Matrize Exit Poll predicts that the BJP and its allies will likely secure 42-47 seats, crossing the majority mark in the 81-member assembly. In contrast, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance is expected to win 25-30 seats.
The BJP is projected to garner 44% of the vote share, while the INDIA bloc is expected to secure 38%. The BJP is expected to perform strongly in North Chotanagpur and South Chotanagpur, while the Santhal Pargana region may yield better results for the JMM-led alliance.
This result would represent a shift from the 2019 Jharkhand elections, where the JMM-led alliance won 47 seats and the NDA won 25 seats.
Matrize Exit Polls conducted a survey with over 87,000 participants in Jharkhand, and the margin of error is 3%.
